In the past 2 days, the market has been really unstable, trading in a tight range, but, basically unchanged since last Friday’s close. Tomorrow, lots of things are happening. Treasure Secretary Timonthy Geithner will be questioned by the Congress on AIG’s bail out. AIG stock has been falling continuously for the past 4 days, including losing 6.48% today. The Fed will announce its rate decisions at 2:15pm EST. In the evening, President Obama will deliver his State of the Union speech. Aside from the politically-related events, earnings will continue to come in. In addition, AAPL is hosting a media event at which most people are expecting the new tablet be unveiled.
The market was messy and mixed today. Commodity sectors were mostly weak as X reported disappointing quarterly results. Financials were still weak, with GS dropping another $4.1, or 2.65%, to trade just under $151 per share. Solar stocks rebounded as Chinese solar stocks and SPWRA were upgraded: FSLR +3.05%, SPWRA +3.98%, AMSC +5%, TSL +4.03%.
After the market, YHOO reported better-than-expected earnings. Its shares rose +3.75% in the after-hours. GILD hopped +6.31% as it reported a solid quarter. SANM had a "blowout" quarter, earning 74 cents per share vs. an average estimate of 13 cents per share! After the report, SANM flew +15% higher!
The Dow was down 2.57 points; SPX slid 4.61 points; Nasdaq lost 7.07 points:
UNG (natural gas) was really weak, down 4%. USO (oil) was also lower. XME (metals and mining) fell 1.81%. BTK (biotechs) had a slight bounce. PBW (clean energy) was flat even though the solars bounced. XLF (financials) dropped 1.75%. HGX (housing) was in the green as SHW delivered a strong quarterly report. FXI (Chinese ADRs) slumped 2.87%.
SPX
SPX slid 4.61 points to close at 1092.17. It closed below the 1100 level. The 10-day MA and MACD went lower.
Nasdaq
Nasdaq lost 7.07 points to close at 2203.73. It closed above the 2200 level. The 10-day and 20-day MAs were down.
So, far this week, the market, as a whole, really has not gone anywhere. As mentioned in my Market Forecast this weekend, it appears that both SPX and Nasdaq are still hovering around their support levels: SPX 1100 and Nasdaq 2200. The 10-day and 20-day MAs have turned lower, which is not an encouraging sign. If the support levels are broken, the market could have some distance to fall. To preserve the bullish trend, SPX would have to at least go back above 1120 soon, which took a whole month to break back in November 2009. We’ll have to see how the above-mentioned "politically-related" events play out this week. It appears that the whole market is waiting as well. Things could get a little clearer after tomorrow. But, don’t forget, there’s a GDP report on Friday.
Good night and HappyTrading! ™
